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The Foster Letter —

Religious Market Update

The FOSTER Letter is a bi-weekly e-mail religious market intelligence report targeted to Christian market channel and ministry leaders.  Each issue reports on news, trends, events and research that will directly or indirectly impact your audiences and businesses in a convenient summary format  Better informed leaJAN10_09.htmlders make better choices!

Researched, Edited & Published by Gary D. Foster

Excerpts from the

January 25, 2011 edition of

The FOSTER Letter—Religious Market Update

e-First Publishing We are already seeing this, of course. But Thomas Nelson CEO Michael Hyatt thinks the trend will accelerate—especially since 19 of the top 50 books in ’10 sold more e-copies than print. Publishers will see this as a way of reducing risk and testing the market. The print copy will be manufactured for those who prefer them (still the majority of readers) or printed on demand for those who want a souvenir. (Michael Hyatt’s blog, Intentional Leadership 1/11/11) 

Conservative Drift & Deep Teaching While the overall attendance decline will hit churches of all types and denominations in the coming decade, growing churches will tend to be the more theologically conservative. Millennials will either go to conservative churches, or they will not go at all. Coupled with this, by 2020 many growing churches will get deeper theologically and more popular. Many young adult dropouts left the church because they desired deeper teaching. The superficial anomalies will most likely still exist, but churches that challenge people to greater biblical depths will proliferate while others languish in their own shallowness. (Church Executive Newsletter 12/3/11) 

Tough Marketing Problem Count on me for a cost-effective solution. Contact 419-238-4082, Gary@garydfoster.com or www.garydfoster.com. 

Religious People Healthier Very religious Americans tend to exercise more, eat healthier, and smoke less, finds a new Gallup report. The most religious Americans scored a 66.3 on the Gallup-Healthways Healthy Behavior Index. Non-religious Americans scored a 58.3, and moderately religious Americans scored a 60.6. Only 14.9% of very religious Americans smoke vs. 27.6% of nonreligious adults. The very religious are most likely to eat healthy (68.1%) and exercise regularly (53.3%) than their less religious counterparts. (Christian Post 12/23/10) 

Self-Publishing Explosion Amazon estimates self-published titles account for more than 100,000 new print titles per month, with most being listed on the premier bookselling website. (Foster Network 1/15/11) 

China’s Retail Sales, the main gauge of consumer spending, rose 18.7% year on year to USD $183 billion in 5/10, following a 15.2% rise the previous year. China’s retail sales may outstrip those of the U.S. by reaching USD $5 trillion in 2016. 52% of affluent Chinese consumers whose annual income exceeds RMB 250,000 (USD $36,765) trust foreign brands more than Chinese ones, while just 37% prefer the latter. (Center for Media Research Brief 12/29/10) 

Changing Views A new Pew Research Center study shows some significant changes over the past 50 years in attitudes and behavior relating to sex, marriage, and the family. In 1960, 72% of the adult U.S. population was married. By ’08 it had dropped to 52%. In ’60, 5% of adults were divorced or separated vs. 14% in ’08.  Since ’60, the percentage of adults who were never married grew from 15% to 27%. When asked in the new survey, “Is marriage becoming obsolete?” 39% said yes. Over the past 50 years, children born to unmarried mothers rose from 5% to 41%. Yet, 67% say they are optimistic, and 76% say their family is the most important element of their lives. (Pastor’s Weekly Briefing 12/10/10) 

Least Religious Generation America’s 78 million Millennials (born between ’80 and ’00) are the least religious generation in American history, claim Thom and Jess Rainer in their book The Millennials: Connecting to America's Largest Generation. Only 13% consider any type of spirituality to be important in their lives. In fact, most Millennials don’t think about religion at all. (Charisma News 12/21/10)

E-Books Top Bestseller List USA Today’s 1/6/11 Best-Selling Books list shows e-book versions of the top 6 books outsold the print versions the week between Christmas and New Year’s when between 3 and 5 million e-readers were activated. The surge isn’t sustainable, but e-book sales could double in ’11. The average hardcover costs $15.50, while the average e-book is $8.75, indicating e-books are cannibalizing the print book market. (USA Today 1/5/11) 

Markets Always Change in response to cultural, economic, and political forces. A marketer’s dominance in one period is never assured in the next period, no matter how strong its brand; look at GM and Ford. Yet, it is the nature of dominant competitors to move cautiously to adapt to new market conditions. They do not easily relinquish “proven” formulas that produced so much success. Furthermore, the management, operations, and marketing skills that are wed to those formulas run deep within a dominant competitor’s organization, reinforcing internal resistance to change. It’s human nature to become enamored with the trappings of dominance. This opens the door for smaller players who are more in-tune with the changing market and able to respond more nimbly. Often only an outsider can bring enough objectivity to see this subtle “killer arrogance.” I can bring you that objectivity. Contact me at 419-238-4082, gary@garydfoster.com or www.garydfoster.com. (Internet Retailer 3/07) 

Homeschoolers Score an average of 37 percentile points above the national average on standardized achievement tests and typically score above average on the SAT and ACT, statistics that have caught the eye of college admissions officers. Since ’99, the number of home-schoolers in the U.S. has increased by 74%. Colleges and universities have noticed and many now aggressively recruit home-schooled students. (LifeSite News 1/4/11) 

Worth Waiting Couples who reserve sex for marriage enjoy greater stability and communication, say Brigham Young Univ. researchers. They found those couples who waited until marriage rated their relationship stability 22% higher than those who started having sex in the early part of their relationship. The relationship satisfaction was 20% higher for those who waited, the sexual quality of the relationship was 5% better, and communication was 12% better. (Journal of Family Psychology, 2010, Vol. 24, Issue 6) 

The U.S. Teen Birth Rate in ’09 was down 6% and the lowest on record (39 births per 1,000 girls ages 15 to 19). Valerie Huber, executive director of the National Abstinence Education Assoc., told The Washington Post, “This latest evidence shows that teen behaviors increasingly mirror the skills they are taught in a successful abstinence-education program.” (CitizenLink 1/4/11) 

Consumer Trends to watch for in 2011: 1) Consumers’ cravings for realness, for the human touch. 2) Urbanization remains one of the absolute mega trends for the coming decade, with about half the global population currently living in urban areas. 3) Mobile devices and social networks allow consumers to constantly receive targeted offers and discounts. 4) Growth in consumer spending in emerging markets far outpaces consumer spending in developed markets. 5) 73% of U.S. consumers consider being physically fit important to being “well”, with 74% including “feeling good about themselves.” 6) In ’11, word of mouth and recommendations will be even more dependent on P2P dynamics. 7) Fractional ownership and lifestyle leasing business models have re-emerged. For many consumers, access is better than ownership. (Center for Media Research Brief 12/29/10) 

Free Insights Send me a description of your business problem, and I’ll send you a FREE response enumerating how we might address it for you. Contact me at 419-238-4082, Gary@garydfoster.com or www.garydfoster.com.  

Millennials are America’s largest generation, more than 78 million in number. They do not want leaders who scream at each other. Although 65% identify themselves as Christian, they are leaving churches to some extent because they see many Christian leaders as negative and prone to divisiveness. They are repulsed by business leaders with harsh and autocratic spirits. (Facts & Trends, Winter 2011) 

Jesus Christ is the Son of God 87% of Americans celebrate Christmas in their family, and 70% of that group recognizes it as a religious holiday celebrating the birth of Christ rather than a secular one. 27% celebrate Christmas as a secular holiday. Among those who celebrate Christmas, 81% believe Jesus Christ is the son of God sent to Earth to die for our sins. 83% also think Jesus Christ actually walked the Earth 2000 years ago. 73% believe Jesus Christ was born to the Virgin Mary. (Rasmussen Reports 12/24/10) 

Textbooks vs. E-Books Despite their fondness for social networking and cell phones, most college students say they prefer textbooks in print rather than e-text form. Nearly 75% of students responding to a major new survey said they prefer printed texts, citing a fondness for print’s look and feel, as well as its permanence and ability to be resold. (BISIG 1/6/11) 

More Optimists According to a new Gallup poll, twice as many Americans think the U.S. economy will be better rather than worse in 2011. Gallup analysis suggests this could represent either the generally optimistic nature of Americans, or it could reflect views of a recovering economy. (Center for Media Research Brief 1/13/11) 

Believers’ Gene Cambridge University’s Economics professor Robert Rowthorn wrote in the academic journal Proceedings of the Royal Society that people who are more religious tend to have more children. There also exists in some people a genetic predisposition towards belief. This led Rowthorn to suggest the “believers’ gene” and the tendency of religious people to have more children could help spread religion. The World Values Survey, which covers 82 nations from 1981 to 2004, found people who attended religious services more than once a week had an average of 2.5 children. Those that attended once a month had 2, and non-attenders averaged 1.67 children. (Christian Post 1/19/11) 

Kiosk Growth According to a new study from the NPD Group, the marketshare for standalone movie rental kiosks surpassed that of traditional retail store rentals in the U.S. in ’10. Subscription rental services like Netflix still represent the lion’s share of video rentals (41% in Q3) but kiosk rentals are now in second place at 31%, just ahead of in-store rentals at 27%. (TechnologyLIVE 1/19/11) 

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