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The Foster Letter —

Religious Market Update

The FOSTER Letter is a bi-weekly e-mail religious market intelligence report targeted to Christian market channel and ministry leaders.  Each issue reports on news, trends, events and research that will directly or indirectly impact your audiences and businesses in a convenient summary format  Better informed leaders make better choices!

Researched, Edited & Published by Gary D. Foster

Excerpts from the

August 10, 2008 edition of

The FOSTER Letter—Religious Market Update 

Christian Product Industry Future Packaged Facts’ latest edition of The Religious Publishing and Products Market in the U.S. predicts further gains in the Christian product industry will be fueled largely by growth in demand for videos and software. Audio, visual and software materials have overtaken inspirational gifts as the second biggest category behind books. The guide estimates religious publishing and products sales will total $6 billion in ’08 (a gain of less than 1% over ’07). Though the industry has seen greater gains in the past, it has still grown 21% in the last 5 years, the report calculates, up $1 billion between ’04 and ’08. The report forecasts revenues declining in the next 2 years before “rebounding” to gain ground by 2013. The biggest impact of changing market forces has been in the book area, where evangelical publishers have mostly topped the category. However, a recent “dramatic reversal” has taken place with “the mainstream giants suddenly on top, with the evangelical stalwarts struggling against a corporate juggernaut.” (Christian e-Tailing 7/24/08) 

Sony is trying to boost electronic book sales by untethering the latest model of its e-book reading device from its online bookstore. Sony will provide a software update to its Reader, so the device can display books encoded in a format being adopted by several large publishers. Reader owners will then be able to buy electronic books from stores other than those managed by Sony. This also challenges Amazon.com’s Kindle, which is tied to its own online store. Amazon, however, makes it relatively easy for publishers and individuals to submit books to sell through the store, with Amazon taking 65% of the proceeds. Sony’s store has about 45,000 books available, while Amazon’s Kindle store sports more than 140,000. The International Digital Publishing Forum says e-book sales by a dozen major U.S. publishers amounted to $31.8 million wholesale in ’07. (USA Today 7/24/08) 

Out of Work For the first time since the women’s movement began, an economic recovery has come and gone, and the percentage of women at work has fallen, not risen, reports the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Each of the 7 previous recoveries since 1960 ended with a greater percentage of women at work than when it began. When economists first started noticing this trend, many assumed the pullback was due to women deciding to stay home to raise children, or their husbands were doing well, or they felt committed to running their households. But now a different explanation is turning up. Women struggling with an unfriendly economy are retreating from the work force, either permanently or for long periods. The proportion of women holding jobs in their prime working years, 25 to 54, peaked at 74.9% in early ’00 vs. 72.7% in June ’08, the lowest in 12 years. (NY Times 7/22/08) 

Christian Market Counsel With over 30 years of first-hand involvement, I am one of the foremost authorities on this unique market channel. Contact 419-238-4082, Gary@garydfoster.com or www.garydfoster.com.  

Total Newspaper Readership, including Web site visitors, is increasing, according to Mediamark Research and Intelligence. They found a 2.1% increase in audience size to 80.6 million between spring ’07 and spring ’08. (MediaDailyNews 7/21/08)  

 “Women, in this sexualized culture, are seeing more and more porn, and a certain percentage of them are getting more than just interested; they’re getting addicted,” claims Pat Trueman, former chief obscenity prosecutor for the Justice Department. Trueman testifies, “And now you have an epidemic of women who are addicted to pornography simply because of the steady diet of pornography.” Several years ago, Nielsen NetRatings estimated 9.4 million American women accessed online porn in a single month (Sept. ’03). About the same time, 34% of respondents to a Today’s Christian Woman magazine poll revealed they had intentionally sought out Internet porn. (One News Now 7/23/08)

CBA reports membership of 1,731 stores, including independents (46% of the total), regional and national chains (34%) churches and other outlets such as camps, conference centers or online and direct-mail retailers (20%). (Foster Network 7/18/08) 

The U.S. Minimum Wage increased from $5.85 to $6.55 per hour 7/24/08. In ’09, it will increase once more to $7.25 an hour. (AP 7/24/08) 

Seasoned Advice—No Overhead Obtain experienced and objective guidance on management, marketing, product development, strategic partnerships and general Christian market expertise—only when you want it. Contact 419-238-4082  Gary@garydfoster.com or www.garydfoster.com. 

Codex Online The British Library says the full text of the Codex Sinaiticus (the oldest surviving copy of the New Testament, a 4th century version) will be available online to users by next July, digitally reconnecting parts that are held in Britain, Russia, Germany and a monastery in Egypt's Sinai Desert. “Only a few people have ever had the opportunity to see more than a couple of pages of the (Codex),” said Scot McKendrick, the British Library's head of Western manuscripts. The Web site will give everyone access to a “unique treasure,” he said. (Pastor’s Weekly Briefing 7/24/08) 

Hours Cut The number of Americans who have seen their full-time jobs chopped to part-time because of weak business has swelled to more than 3.7 million, the largest figure since the government began tracking such data more than 50 years ago. These workers now amount to 3.7% of all those employed vs. 3% a year ago; this is the highest level since ’95. According to Labor Department economist Steve Hipple, this startling loss of hours has been affecting men in particular, especially Hispanic men. Among those forced into part-time work from the spring of ’07 to the spring of ’08, 73% were men and 35% were Hispanic. Many see this as a precursor of broader layoffs to come. (NY Times 7/31/08) 

You Market When you hire and when you fire. You market when you call tech support, and you market every time you send a memo. Information spreads like wildfire. Your words and actions, even those intended to be private, can and will be used against you in the court of public opinion. I can help you more intentionally market whenever you communicate and carefully craft what you say and do. E-mail Gary@garydfoster.com or visit www.garydfoster.com.(Seth Godin'’ marketing maxims,. visit his website) 

Most Prestigious Occupations According to Harris Poll’s ’08 list, America’s most prestigious occupations are: Firefighter (57%); Scientist (56%); Doctor (53%); Nurse (52%); Teacher (52%). Priest/Minister/Clergy ranked #8 at 40%. (Harris Interactive 8/5/08) 

Hong Kong Book Fair A record 829,967 visitors attended the ’08 Fair in Hong Kong, an increase of 8.7% over last year’s 760,000. A survey by suppliers and participating companies during the Fair showed fiction to be the most popular, followed by self-help books or those about recent events. Books on religion ranked 3rd and children’s 4th. Visitors to the week-long Fair included more than 6,200 from outside Hong Kong, up 30% over last year. Booths in 13 halls showcased 480 publishers from 21 countries. Both English and Spanish language books had high visibility. (The Standard 7/30/08, IBTimes 7/30/08, HKTDC 7/29/08) 

In Korea online book sales have risen by over 100 billion won ($98.3 million) each year since ’05. Their share of the book market has also been rising; 18% in ’05, 24% in ’06 and 28% in ’07. Five major online bookstores, YES24, InterPark Books, Kyobo Online Store, Aladdin and Libro, accounted for 83% of the Korean online market in ’05, and 95% in the Q1 of ’08. Profits rose by 28.1% over the same period. Brick and mortar stores are struggling in the wake of this market shift. Their number has been more than halved over the last 10 years, a total of 4,987 offline stores in ’98 vs. 2,042 in ’07. (Korea Times 7/21/08)

Coupons The number of American adults using online coupons rose by 39% to 36 million between ’05 and ’08, according to a Simmons/Experian Research survey. Online users account for 24% of the total 148 million consumer-coupon users, compared to 22% market penetration as of ’07. Meanwhile, newspaper-coupon users fell from 96 million in ’05 to 92 million in ’07. Overall coupon usage has declined by 1 million since ’05. The shift is not surprising, given the U.S. adult online population penetration jumped from 46% in ’00 to 71% in ’07, while newspaper penetration declined from 65% to 55%. 29% of online couponers and 23% of newspaper couponers are under age 35. (Nearly half of online-coupon users are 22 to 44.) 61% of online users have household incomes over $60,000 vs. 57% of newspaper users. 36% of online users vs. 29% of newspaper users have children under age 18. (Marketing Daily 7/31/08) 

Retail Trouble The International Council of Shopping Centers predicts 144,000 stores, or about 36,000 per quarter, will bite the dust in ’08. That’s a 7% jump from ’07 and the largest increase in 14 years. But the trade group points out that those numbers mask the many stores that will open. For instance, it says in ’06 139,000 stores failed, but 123,000 new ones sprung up. (Media Post 8/1/08) 

Unmarried Unchurched A dramatic decline in marriage, particularly among young adults, has led to a decline in church attendance over the last 3 decades, according to a study by Princeton University’s Robert Wuthnow. He estimates in his book, After the Baby Boomers: How Twenty- and Thirty-Somethings are Shaping the Future of American Religion, that American churches would have 6.3 million more young adults today if young people started families at the same rate they did 30 years ago. (CitizenLink 8/5/08) 

e-Learning During the annual ’08 CBA Member Meeting Bill Anderson, President and CEO said, “Part of our role as an association is to help stores move into the digital age. We’re working on all sorts of solutions for our stores and suppliers.” CBA is developing an industry e-learning platform to deliver training and product knowledge directly to stores and frontliners via the Web. The “learning management system,” or LMS, enables retail owners and managers to assign staff to specific training and track performance and achievement. Suppliers will be able to develop specialized training in support of major product launches that could include video author/artist  interviews, specialized sales and promotion training, catalog mailings and other campaigns. (ECPA Rush to Press 7/21/08) 

Social Business Forrester Research predicts adoption of social networking technology by small businesses will grow by 20% to 33% in ’08. Deloitte research reports 47% of members of business-sponsored online communities use them for b-to-b purposes. Deloitte’s 2008 Tribalization of Business says enterprises have begun to more effectively use social media tools and online communities to engage with customers and employees for brand discussions, idea generation and product discovery. Ideally, online communities recruit talent, create content, partnerships, and open innovation, all while policing themselves with a minimum of external oversight. (Online Media Daily 8/4/08)

For information on how to become a subscriber to the entire 3-page Foster Letter---Religious Market Update, E-mail us at: subscribe@garydfoster.com